The Invisible Growth Engine
Globalization is a complex and intricate network of national economies, which enables international and intercultural trade. This network has acted as a background force for lower prices, stable inflation, and expanding global trade. It has been a crucial growth engine of current progress – an inseparable system of modern economics that makes the world tick. However, is this still the case?
Major geopolitical events suggest that globalization is not disappearing but fragmenting in ways that quietly erode economic value. An increasingly fragmented world of relations leads to a structural shift. Take the recently tightened trade relations between the EU, China, and the United States: Are these conflicts fragmenting global trade? What is the true cost of deglobalization?
Fragmentation of Global Trade
Concrete examples illustrate this. Global relations have been coming to a halt due to the infamous U.S. tariffs under President Trump. The man is not alone in toughening up trade relations in the current world though, as the EU has similarly imposed many trade barriers on China, primarily regarding the import of EVs to the European market – a long-standing issue which has yet to be resolved. Similarly, China has restricted trade with Europe regarding rare earth mineral exports. As stated by French President Emmanuel Macron, there are ultimately two decisions to be made: either rebalance economic cooperation with China and the U.S. or Europe adopts increasingly tighter protectionist measures (FT, 2025). Judging from current tensions, this shift increasingly favors domestic firms while raising costs for globally integrated manufacturers and exporters.
The move toward mercantilism has strained strategic relations among global powers, each vying for a larger piece of the global economic influence pie. And sure – this might have always been the case to some extent. But globalization was once believed to discourage conflict by making war economically irrational. Recent research suggests that economic interdependence is increasingly “weaponized”, with trade, finance, and supply chains used as instruments of geopolitical pressure rather than mutual stability (Farrell & Newman, 2019).
These developments signal a clear shift in how global trade is perceived. Economic integration is no longer a means of mutual growth, but a strategic tool. As trade, finance, and supply chains are used as instruments of pressure rather than true cooperation, the meaning and purpose of globalization as we know it is changing.
A Glimmer of Hope on the Other Side
Conversely, some argue that this consensus on deglobalization is purely a Eurocentric myth, claiming that the narrative of events, such as the Russo-Ukrainian war, carrying a heavy impact on deglobalization and the global economy is “partial and profoundly Eurocentric” (Maracchione, 2025).
From our point of view, living near the epicenter of this conflict in Eastern Europe, this claim might seem counterintuitive; however, there is still truth to this opposing view. Regions like Central Asia are on the rise. In the wake of Western turmoil regarding ties to the global economy, many countries have taken a stance against mercantilism and protectionism – ideas now prominent in the West. Uzbekistan, for instance, conducted over 170 high-level delegations to nearly 100 countries by the end of 2025 – more than many Western powers can manage in a year – signaling that globalization is evolving rather than disappearing with emerging market opportunities in the East.
The Quiet and Hidden Leak
Comparing the two ideas mentioned above, it is curious how one phenomenon can have such a contrasting effect on different parts of the world. Countries like Uzbekistan do show that globalization is not dead, but the leak in older, established economies like the U.S., EU, and China may mean opportunities are lost or unevenly distributed. Looking back at the West, protectionism and strategic use of trade create inefficiencies – tariffs, barriers, and supply chain disruptions – burdening corporate margins, consumers, and long-term returns. These inefficiencies act like small leaks in an economic engine; individually minor, collectively they slow growth and reduce global prosperity and progress, even if global GDP is slowly growing (IMF, 2025).
Conclusion
Globalization has long been the invisible engine driving global growth, connecting economies and enabling prosperity. Yet, as the world fragments and strategic competition replaces cooperation, the system that once fueled progress is leaking value in subtle but significant ways. Protectionism, trade barriers, and the weaponization of economic ties slow growth and undermine trust among established powers. At the same time, emerging regions, such as Central Asia, demonstrate that globalization is not disappearing – it is evolving – offering opportunities for those who actively engage with the global network. The challenge ahead lies in recognizing and addressing these hidden leaks. In a fragmented global economy, the real risk is not deglobalization itself, but the silent cost of inefficiency for countries and firms that fail to adapt.
-Kārlis Stūrmanis