In the span of a year, nuclear has gone from an overlooked corner of the US energy mix to
one of the market’s hottest stories. Looking at the market, plenty of US-listed companies tied
to nuclear, uranium, or reactor tech have had a huge run this year. The Global X Uranium
ETF (URA) is up about 49% year-to-date, and individual names have doubled or even tripled
YTD. But what’s driving the rally? It really comes down to two big drivers: AI
infrastructure and national security.
Data Centers and AI
AI runs on massive data centers that need round-the-clock power. That demand is already big
and climbing fast. Conservative outlooks show global data-center electricity use roughly
doubling by 2030, with AI as the primary driver. One of the best ways to meet this demand is
with nuclear energy. It provides reliable, 24/7 baseload power with extremely low carbon emissions. Unlike solar or wind, nuclear doesn’t rely on weather conditions and offers long-
term price stability.
Modern advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), though not yet operational in the US, are
in development and could eventually be built near data centers to provide scalable, stable
power. They can range from tens to hundreds of megawatts and help meet AI’s energy
appetite. Big Tech is already buying into this future. Microsoft signed a fusion power deal
with Helion, Bill Gates’ TerraPower is developing next-gen reactors in Wyoming, and Google
has partnered with Kairos Power on advanced nuclear projects. These companies are signing
contracts for reactors not yet operational, just to lock in future energy.
Private capital has caught on too. A lot of money is flowing into US nuclear businesses.
Anticipating future demand, investors have bid nuclear stocks up significantly. Most of the
recent gains haven’t come from increased earnings, but from valuation multiples expanding
across the board. In short: stock prices have doubled while profits haven’t, a classic sign of
speculative momentum.
National Security
The US has essentially neglected nuclear energy since the Cold War. While the domestic
industry stagnated, Russia and China steadily built up their capabilities, both in energy and
military applications. It’s now at the point where the US relies heavily on allies and Russia for
much of its nuclear fuel cycle. Today, Russia and China supply roughly 60% of the world’s
enriched uranium, with Russia providing about 45% and China around 15% (WNA). Outside
of small pilot HALEU runs by Centrus Energy, there’s no fully US-owned commercial-scale
enrichment (HALEU, or High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium, is a next-generation reactor
fuel enriched to between 5% and 20% uranium-235, needed for many advanced reactors
including SMRs). There’s also Urenco USA, which operates in New Mexico but it is owned
by the Dutch, UK, and German governments.
There is some light at the end of the tunnel, though. The US has finally realized it can’t
depend on adversaries for critical energy infrastructure and is starting to rebuild its domestic
nuclear fuel capabilities. Programs like the Department of Energy’s HALEU initiative and
public-private partnerships are slowly getting off the ground. This shift is also being reflected
in the stock market, with the biggest gainers being fuel-cycle specialists: companies that
enrich uranium, fabricate fuel, or handle nuclear supply chains.
Segment Performance Year-to-Date:
Segment AVG YTD Return
Fuel-cycle specialists (e.g. Centrus, Lightbridge) ~213%
Reactor OEMs/designers (e.g. Oklo, NuScale) ~145%
Uranium miners (e.g. Cameco, Energy Fuels) ~49%
Uranium-focused ETF (URA) ~49%
So is the Sector Overpriced, or is there more room to grow?
That’s the million-dollar question.
Valuations today are high by almost any metric. Most stocks in the space are trading at steep
multiples relative to their current earnings. But considering that the AI boom is still in its
early stages, and the US nuclear infrastructure remains largely underdeveloped, there’s a solid
argument for longer-term upside. In the near term, expect volatility. These are hype-driven,
policy-sensitive names with limited operating revenue. But if nuclear gains real deployment
momentum, especially through SMRs or government contracts, today’s valuations end up
being justified. Nuclear’s comeback isn’t just about climate, it’s about powering AI and
securing America’s energy independence. The rally might pause, but the shift in how the
sector is viewed is permanent.
– Ralf Aron Rebane
